Space-Time Variation and Spatial Differentiation of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Hubei Province Based on Extended GWR

Clarifying the regional transmission mechanism of COVID-19 has practical significance for effective protection. Taking 103 county-level regions of Hubei Province as an example, and taking the fastest-spreading stage of COVID-19, which lasted from 29 January 2020, to 29 February 2020, as the research period, we systematically analyzed the population migration, spatio-temporal variation pattern of COVID-19, with emphasis on the spatio-temporal differences and scale effects of related factors by using the daily sliding, time-ordered data analysis method, combined with extended geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results state that: Population migration plays a two-way role in COVID-19 variation. The emigrants’ and immigrants’ population of Wuhan city accounted for 3.70% and 73.05% of the total migrants’ population respectively;the restriction measures were not only effective in controlling the emigrants, but also effective in preventing immigrants. COVID-19 has significant spatial autocorrelation, and spatio-temporal differentiation has an effect on COVID-19. Different factors have different degrees of effect on COVID-19, and similar factors show different scale effects. Generally, the pattern of spatial differentiation is a transitional pattern of parallel bands from east to west, and also an epitaxial radiation pattern centered in the Wuhan 1 + 8 urban circle. This paper is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal evolution of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, so as to provide a reference for similar epidemic prevention.

A Novel Protein Drug, Novaferon, as the Potential Antiviral Drug for COVID-19 (preprint)

Abstract Background Novaferon, a novel protein drug approved for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B in China, exhibits potent antiviral activities. We aimed to determine the anti-SARS-CoV-2 effects of Novaferon in vitro, and conducted a randomized, open-label, parallel group study to explore the antiviral effects of Novaferon for COVID-19. Methods In laboratory, the inhibition of Novaferon on viral replication in cells infected with SARS-CoV-2, and on SARS-CoV-2 entry into healthy cells was determined. Antiviral effects of Novaferon were evaluated in COVID-19 patients with treatment of Novaferon, Novaferon plus Lopinavir/Ritonavir, or Lopinavir/Ritonavir. The primary endpoint was the SARS-CoV-2 clearance rates on day 6 of treatment, and the secondary endpoint was the time to the SARS-CoV-2 clearance in COVID-19 patients Results Novaferon inhibited the viral replication in infected cells (EC50=1.02 ng/ml), and protected healthy cells from SARS-CoV-2 infection (EC50=0.1 ng/ml). Results from the 89 enrolled COVID-19 patients showed that both Novaferon and Novaferon plus Lopinavir/Ritonavir groups had significantly higher SARS-CoV-2 clearance rates on day 6 than the Lopinavir/Ritonavir group (50.0% vs.24.1%, p = 0.0400, and 60.0% vs.24.1%, p = 0.0053). Median time to SARS-CoV-2 clearance were 6 days, 6 days, and 9 days for three groups respectively, suggesting a 3-dayreduction of time to SARS-CoV-2 clearance in both Novaferon and Novaferon plus Lopinavir/Ritonavir groups compared with Lopinavir/Ritonavir group. Conclusions Novaferon exhibited anti-SARS-CoV-2 effects in vitro and in COVID-19 patients. These data justified the further evaluation of Novaferon. Key words: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Novaferon, Antiviral drug, Lopinavir/Ritonavir